Understanding the COT Report - BabyPips.com

Trading Ideas For Next Week [Week 2] (Part 1)

Trading Ideas For Next Week [Week 2] (Part 1)
Due to popular demand I've decided to bring this series back for a week 2 and I'll continue to release 3-5 trading ideas every Saturday. How do you guys feel about the name of this series? Would you like me to change the name to something like "Setup Saturdays" or are you guys cool with the current naming scheme?
So this week I wanted to be a lot more in depth in my analysis and setups since I didn't think I was super clear last week with my reasoning on some the setups. I want these posts to be as beginner friendly as possible because there's a lot more beginners in this Subreddit than I had realized. I want you to use this as an educational tool and not as a signal service as a result I'm going to give you possible trade setups and I want you to be the judge of whether you should enter once/if price gets to that point since I feel like that will benefit beginners in the long run. I got a couple questions about top down time frame analysis so that'll be a focus of today's post. Scroll down to NZDJPY if you really want an in-depth look at how I perform top down time frame analysis.
I'll include a picture of a chart and my TradingView chart so if you want to zoom in and out of the chart you'll have that ability to do so.
Quick Disclaimer: Some of the charts pricing might be off by a bit since I started working on this during the New York session on Friday. If any of the charts are impacted in a way that alters the setup I'll be sure to update the charts before I post this on Saturday. Just gotta hope that hope that Powell doesn't break the market or else I might have to redo this entire post.
AUDUSD:

AUDUSD Daily
TradingView Link For Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/Wb5K2bS8-AUDUSD-Daily-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Which way is the trend pointing? It looks like it's pointing up which we can see with the green trend line but how about we zoom in to the 4 hour char to see if that's actually the case.
Tip: When drawing a trend line, especially on the daily and higher time frames, remember to hit as many wicks as possible since they are relevant and not just some anomaly you can ignore.

AUDUSD 4 Hour
TradingView Link For 4 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/aah8294z-AUDUSD-4-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: When we got close to where we are with price and we draw a Fibonacci Retracement from the point where price took off to the point where price peaked we can see that price came down to .5 Fibonacci level where it then started going up again. Coincidence? Possibly. As a result I believe that price could continue higher and it would be justified if it did. However, if we look at the trend lines we can see that price appears to have broke put of of our major trend line (Green) which means that price could fall to the downside if it's actually a breakout. Price then appears like it would then adhere to the new minor trend line (Red). There's also the possibility that this was just a fake breakout and price could go up and adhere to green trend line. I'm going to have a selling bias on this trade since price looks like it double topped at the highs of this year and it looks like we could see price fall. I'm leaning towards the drop of price due to the symmetrical triangle pattern created by the major and minor trend line and looks like price is going to get pushed down which we should get an idea of soon.
Tip: Every time price makes a large move and falls/rises after making a peak/valley always pull out the Fibonacci retracement tool to see if price will bounce from the .382, .5, or .618 levels as they are the most significant levels. This can tell you if you're going to likely get a trend continuation.

AUDUSD 1 Hour
TradingView Link For 1 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/IHgrnfYs-AUDUSD-1-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: I drew out multiple different scenarios which I think can play out since like I said before we're not trying to predict a single movement but we're preparing to be reactive to an ideal condition which may be thrown at us. Remember that major trend line we drew in on the daily chart well it's going to play a large role here. This trend line has been in the making since March so we're not just going to brush it off. The trend line appears to have been broken and we seem to be sticking that minor trend line after the break of the symmetrical triangle pattern. After the break of the symmetrical triangle pattern price usually gets pushed heavily to one side and it looks like price is wanting to get pushed to the downside. As a result, I'm going to really keep on eyes on scenario the blue arrows display since I think it's the most probable. Looking at the scenario there are going to be two potentially good entry points for a sell. The first being when price goes up to retest the green trend line which would also serve as a bounce from our red trend line. Once we get that bounce we could enter in for a sell with a take profit hopefully somewhere around the .66 area. Another good entry would be when price breaks the zone of support of .68 and after it retests it. Wait for a confirmation candlestick pattern showing price will fall when retesting (i.e. railroad track, bullish engulfment candle, evening star, shooting star, etc.). Look for these candlestick patterns on the 15 minute chart. Once you got the confirmation take the sell and ride price down to the .66 zone. The other scenario that could occur is we could see price go back into the green trend line by breaking the red trend line (Orange Arrows). If this occurs we want to catch the retest bounce of the red trend line and ride price up to the high of the year which is at .702. At that point price could break the resistance at which point we could catch the retest of the zone and ride price up. Or it could go up to .702 create a triple top and fall. If you get a candlestick confirmation saying it'll fall then take a sell at the high of the year.
NZDUSD:
If there's something I really like in Forex it's definitely got to be harmonic patterns due to their high accuracy. NZDUSD just recently completed one of them and this is a really good indicator of what price is going to do.

NZDUSD Daily
TradingView Chart For Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/zQpHzUcK-NZDUSD-Daily-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Yes, we have trend line that says that price is going up however I make exceptions for Harmonic patterns since they are accurate about 80%-90% of the time. The pattern you see above is know as a Bearish Bat Pattern. Like the name says it's an indicator that price is going to go Bearish so although the trend line is going up I'm going to have a bearish bias on this trade.

NZDUSD 4 Hour
TradingView Chart For 4 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/C29kpCyO-NZDUSD-4-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Not really much to add here just tossed on a Fibonacci retracement tool from where price took off to the peak just to check for any potential support from any of the major levels which we don't appear to have. We'll go a lot more in-depth on this pair on the 1 hour chart since that's where things get interesting.

NZDUSD 1 Hour
TradingView Link For 1 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/dKJatcM7-NZDUSD-1-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Looking at price we can see that since June 11th price has been trading in a boxed consolidation range. Again I drew out the possibilities I believe could be ideal for us. Remember that I said Harmonics work 80%-90%. Well that means that they fail 10%-20% of the time which is definitely not something we can neglect. We can see that there's a descending triangle which price is reaching the end of. This means that price is getting ready to move to one direction since big moves always come after consolidation. If it moves to upside wait for price to close above the the spot marked D then you can enter for a buy and ride price up to the .67525 zone where price could break to upside or bounce back down (Orange Arrow). Remember to wait for it to actually close above point D since it could create a triple top and drive price back down. It's the same procedure as AUDUSD here if it makes this move where if it breaks it then catch the retest and if it looks like it's wanting to fall down wait for a confirmation pattern. If it breaks the box to the downside and breaks the support zone then take a sell and ride price down to the trend line at which point you should close the trade as there's a chance price could move against you and it's best to secure profits while you can. Once at the trend line it could bounce and if it does you should be able to ride price up to that .67525 zone (Green Arrow). If price breaks the trend line then wait for the retest and you should be able to ride price down pretty far (Red Arrows). I think you should be able to ride it down to .5918 zone but you'll have to keep your on it.
EURNZD:

EURNZD Daily
TradingView Link For Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURNZD/jzgmGcRe-EURNZD-Daily-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Well we got a pretty clear descending channel and price looks like it's at the top part of the channel currently so we're going to want to look for some optimal selling conditions due to the down trend.

EURNZD 4 Hour
TradingView Link For 4 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURNZD/YzOpvcH7-EURNZD-4-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Looking at the 4 hour chart we can see that there appears to be a symmetrical triangle coming to it's end meaning price is getting ready to get pushed to a side. I believe it'll break the triangle and fall to the downside so once you see it break it would be a good idea to take a sell and ride price down to that support zone at 1.7187. Price could also briefly break to the upside then bounce off the top of the channel and it does take a trade from the bounce and ride price down to the same support zone. At that point, I'll leave it up to you to determine how you think price will go and what you should be looking for. Consider it to be a little quiz if you want to think of it like that. You've got my charts so use them as a reference since I've already marked some crucial support/resistance zones which we should keep our on for the next couple weeks.

EURNZD 1 Hour
TradingView Link For 1 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURNZD/ICWvgEsg-EURNZD-1-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: There's nothing that special on the one hour chart that I have to point out since I think we pretty much got all the big stuff out of the way on our analysis of the 4 hour chart. Be sure to get a good sell in there since there are two potentially good setups which I've outlined for you. Also be sure to be careful and wait for the bounce of the channel if price goes that way since there's a chance price could break the channel and I don't want you to take a loss because you were impatient.
NZDJPY:
This pair is going to be really fun since we're going to be looking through a lot of time frames so if you really want to learn about a top down approach to analyzing time frames and trends then pay very close attention to how I break down this trade.

NZDJPY Monthly
TradingView Link For Monthly: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/jZh4F2Jv-NZDJPY-Monthly-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Yes, we're actually going to be looking at the monthly chart. I bet you guys don't do that very often. Looking at it we can see that price has been following a clear down trend line since late 2014. If you look at the wick of this month's candle you can see that it appears to have touched the trend line meaning we could see a good opportunity to catch a sell since it had just recently bounced off. Let's take a look at lower time frames to see if this continues to be true.

NZDJPY Weekly
TradingView Link For Weekly: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/dpvI29BB-NZDJPY-Weekly-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: When zooming into the weekly we can see that using the wicks of the candles we can actually draw a channel for the low portion that runs pretty much in parallel to the trend line we drew on the monthly chart. We can see that price clearly bounced from the trend line and I think this gives us good reason to believe in the coming weeks we could see the price drop. Also looking at the Bollinger Bands we can see that price also bounced from the top band which also supports a drop of price. Let's go into the daily to see if we can get a better idea.

NZDJPY Daily
TradingView Link For Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/NbWLURkU-NZDJPY-Daily-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Looking at the daily time frame we can see that price is currently consolidated and remember big moves always come after consolidation. If you look closely however you can see that price looks like it's about to break the 200 day EMA (Orange line). If it breaks the EMA we could see price drop pretty far at an accelerated rate. Besides those couple observations there's not much else going on with the daily chart.

NZDJPY 4 Hour
TradingView Link For 4 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/d1kaogH5-NZDJPY-4-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Would you look at that, it looks like we got a descending triangle on the 4 hour chart which looks like it's coming to an end. Looking at price it looks like it's wanting to push to the downside. Once you get a break below the lows of the day of June 11th I think it would be a safe bet to take a sell trade and ride it down for 66.825 for this week. If it breaks the 66.825 support zone then I'll definitely take a sell and try to ride price down to the bottom of the channel which we drew on the weekly chart. There's also the possibility that price could take support at any of these support zones and then head back up to test the top of the channel. At which point I'll be looking to get into a sell at the top of the channel but I won't ride price up to the channel since at this current point in time I feel like there's a large amount of risk in that.

NZDJPY 1 Hour
TradingView Link For 1 Hour: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/83b47mFS-NZDJPY-1-Hour-For-Reddit-Post-6-20-U-AD3133/
Analysis: Not much more to add here since I think by this point we got the entire story so I'm not going to say much more about the 1 hour chart since I think the analysis for the 4 hour chart also sums this up pretty well.
Well that was a lot of information to go through and I hope you found some value in this since it took me quite a few hours to put this together for you guys. Truth be told, I spent most of Friday working on this so I hope at least one person finds some value in which case I'll consider it a win.
So you guys tired of me yet or do you want me to continue this series for a week 3? It takes a lot of time and effort to put this together so I'll only do it if people want it or else I'll pretty much feel like I wasted my time. I might put together a little lesson on how to use the COT in order to catch some big reversal moves in the market since the COT pretty much tells you what the hedge funds are doing and you also want to trade with the hedge funds and institutions. It'll probably take a couple weeks since I'll have to compile some data together and wait for a setup before putting that out but I'll be working on it. Are there any other things you may want explained? Let me know and I'll try to find setups which contain the topic you may want more details on. I hope you have a great trading week!
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some helphul common terms for forex traders

Common terms:

submitted by livmarsh1992- to u/livmarsh1992- [link] [comments]

An Immature Forex Trader

After running around like headless chicken in forex market for over 1.5 years, jumping from one to another half baked strategy, I have realised that:
  1. I am a impulsive trader. I couldn't just control my impulse every time when I actually need to sit back and analyse.
  2. After losing money, revenge trading emotions take over the mind. Further loss on the card.
  3. I tend to take larger positions irrespective of my small account. Greed rules.
  4. I am hooked to my cell screen watching live charts throughout the day. Recently ventured into smaller time frame like M15.
  5. People sitting on the other side (Market Makers ) are very very smart people. They play with your psychology. Many times, I chase the price and end up losing.
Now, when I am at the edge after losing much money. I came to understand following:
  1. I should weigh in Macroeconomics before taking position. Only Price Action wont help.
  2. I shouldn't be limited to only smaller time-frames. Bigger time-frames give you directions.
  3. I should have a fixed trading plan and stick to it no matter what.
  4. I better stay away from news trading. Highly risky.
  5. I should take smaller positions. Price moves immediately against you the moment you take bigger positions. I have experienced it many times.
Keeping above things in mind, still I find it really hard to follow a controlled mechanism for trading. Impulsiveness and greed take over. It seems like Trading is a kind of struggle to eliminate your negative emotions. To find your real pure self.
------------------------
Now, I want to weigh in macro economics factors in trading. Is there any site which provide various such economic analysis of all kind of pairs along with price action & COT analysis. I would be ready to pay subscription if genuine. It is time consuming for me to manually keeping track of each such element.
Rest of the things that I mentioned are related to control of own mind which I would have to practice religiously.
Guidance required.
submitted by fundoomaster to Forex [link] [comments]

Spot Forex trading based on Open Interest in FX Futures.

Some time back, Commitment of Traders (COT) in Forex futures was suggested here as a helpful indicator of market sentiment, and its usefulness in spot FX trading.
There is a babypips chapter on it. It is also mentioned in John Murphy's Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. The two seem to diverge in *how to use information on Open Interest.
According to Babypips, we should focus on Non-commerical (speculators): when they take the net short positions in one direction, the market is ready to move in the other direction, usually.
From John Murphy's book:
The guiding principle in analyzing the Commitments Report is the belief that the large commercial hedgers [blue curve in babypips chart] are usually right, while the traders are usually wrong. That being the case, the idea is to place yourself in the same positions as the hedgers and in the opposite positions of the two categories of traders.
Now, both are basically saying the same thing, but they use different categories contributing to open interest. It might happen, that they both are not always strongly correlated? That is, it is not necessary that when Commercial trader (hedgers) take one extreme of positions, the Non-commercial traders (speculators) take the other extreme.
For those who follow COT reports, which trader do you focus on? Or are they always anti-correlated, so it doesn't matter which you follow?
submitted by digitalfakir to Forex [link] [comments]

USD Bulls

USD weakness is coming to an end and here's why:
  1. DXY accumulating higher lows in daily chart. Broke out of bearish channel. Chart 1
  2. US T-notes, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y, bounced off a higher low. Chart 2
  3. US Bonds, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, bounced off a higher low. Chart 3 (Add comparison to the chart, USGG5YR:IND and USGG10YR:IND)
  4. Long positions decreasing on COT for NZD, JPY, GBP, AUD Chart 4
  5. Channel breakouts in USDCAD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD. AUDUSD touching 200MA support.
  6. Fed rate hike possibly december 2016 priced in at +50%, which chance of hike increasing linearly up to that from now. Link Institutional traders are going to start accumulating long positions. Markets will start to price this in.
USD bulls guys.
submitted by dofubrain to Forex [link] [comments]

Who keeps buying the CAD?

Recently we have had an array of very sound analysis on why major CAD crosses are a sell in this sub:
(also: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/52vj1d/usdcad_sell_time_now/ )
And the vast majority of retail traders agree, and are short:
http://imgur.com/ytZqpaY
but who is on the other side? Because someone keeps buying, and buying hard into weakness, or marking price up:
http://imgur.com/k6E84PP
CoT for CAD:
http://imgur.com/LxjtIlr
(Edit: apologies for the bad title, I meant to imply that large players are currently buying the major CAD crosses, not the CAD as a currency).
submitted by alotmorealots to Forex [link] [comments]

ICT Forex - COT Insights For Effective Price Action Analysis Forex COT Report Strategy Indicator - YouTube Using COT analysis - YouTube Forex CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (COT) Analysis and Review 28th May 2017 Forex Sentiment Analysis Best Indicator the COT for a ... COT report and Forex Trading. How To Use The Commitment of Traders - COT Report Forex (2020) How to Use the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report - YouTube Price action and COT in Forex - YouTube Forex cot report analysis  How to use & Trade with COT ...

It'll walk you through a professional tutorial for COT analysis when Forex trading so make sure to make some notes. You might also have seen the COT charts, you'll be able to fully understand how they work and make them yourself throughout the tutorial. Using the COT report analysis is by far one of the best Forex strategies out there to implement just make sure to use it with a fundamental ... Attachments: Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas. Exit Attachments. Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas Last Post ; 1 436 437 Page 438 439 440 448; 1 Page 438 448 ; Post # 8,741; Quote; Edited Oct 30, 2020 2:16am Oct 29, 2020 7:18pm Edited Oct 30, 2020 2:16am C-12. Joined Jun 2012 Status: NPC 4,747 Posts. In fact I should have sent this over before. Not sure if you've ever used ... If USD/JPY falls after three months, the firm’s gain on the futures contract would offset the increased cost on its transaction with the Japanese sword smith. On the other hand, if USD/JPY rises after three months, the firm’s loss on the futures contract would be offset by the decrease in cost of its payment for the samurai swords. Futures and Forex: 10 or 15 minute delay, CT. Barchart is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for individuals with disabilities. We are continuously working to improve our web experience, and encourage users to Contact Us for feedback and accommodation requests. Learn how to trade forex using the Commitment of Traders Report. View top trading strategies and how to do COT report analysis. Share ideas, debate tactics, and swap war stories with forex traders from around the world. Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis Page 39 Forex Factory Home I decided to publish the COT Forex Indicator, which I created for convenience, as an open source. The period DXY is determined by the differences between the two signals on the Pivot Reversal Strategy on the weekly chart.(1W) Thus, relative period point search is automated. When the new signal comes, after the...

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ICT Forex - COT Insights For Effective Price Action Analysis

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